R11: Predicted Ocean

How can ocean predictions be improved on regional scales?

Predicted Ocean brings together researchers from ocean circulation, climate and carbon cycle modeling with modern methods in numerical mathematics and optimization theory to elucidate the prospective changes in regional ocean dynamics and biogeochemistry over the next 50 to 100 years.

 

The evolution of the state of the ocean on decadal time scales is influenced by both natural modes of variability and anthropogenic trends, and involves spatial patterns which are far from uniform. A leading factor governing regional ocean changes is the response of ocean circulation to atmospheric forcing variability and trends: the associated ocean transport anomalies strongly influence the geographical patterns of oceanic processes such as carbon uptake, acidification, near-bottom warming and sea level. Local rates of sea level change during the last decades, for instance, significantly differed from the global-mean rise due to circulation-related swings in the warm upper-ocean waters.

Future changes in nutrient supply and associated biological productivity as well as in oceanic carbon uptake and associated acidification, will be significantly impacted on a regional scale by the changes in the 3-D circulation, for instance, the up- and down-welling patterns in the southern ocean and in the tropics, or the deep wintertime convection in the subarctic Atlantic. A common denominator of future ocean changes at the regional scale is an over-arching influence of ocean dynamics: understanding the behavior of ocean circulation and its effect on biogeochemical fluxes in response to changing atmospheric conditions represents a prerequisite for developing capabilities in projecting the future evolution of societally relevant properties at the regional scale, such as the occurrence of species and fishing opportunities.

Specific topics to be addressed are:

  • advancement of high-resolution ocean physical-biogeochemical model systems
  • prediction of ocean properties



Publications

Schartau, M., Wallhead, P., Hemmings, J., Löptien, U., Kriest, I., Krishna, S., Ward, B. A., Slawig, T. and Oschlies, A. (2017) Reviews and syntheses: Parameter identification in marine planktonic ecosystem modelling Biogeosciences (BG), 14 (6). pp. 1647-1701. DOI 10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017.

Arevalo-Martinez, D. L., Kock, A., Steinhoff, T., Brandt, P., Dengler, M., Fischer, T., Körtzinger, A. and Bange, H. W. (2017) Nitrous oxide during the onset of the Atlantic Cold Tongue Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans, 122 (1). pp. 171-184. DOI 10.1002/2016JC012238.

Kriest, I., Sauerland, V., Khatiwala, S., Srivastav, A. and Oschlies, A. (2017) Calibrating a global three-dimensional biogeochemical ocean model (MOPS-1.0) Geoscientific Model Development, 10 . pp. 127-154. DOI 10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017.

Hasselbring, W., Becker, S., van Hoorn, A., Kounev, S. and Reussner, R. (2016) 7th Symposium on Software Performance (SSP) Softwaretechnik-Trends, 36 (4). p. 1.

Su, B., Pahlow, M. and Oschlies, A. (2016) Box-modeling of the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen deposition and benthic remineralization on the nitrogen cycle of the eastern tropical South Pacific Biogeosciences (BG), 13 . pp. 4985-5001. DOI 10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016.

Lebrato, M., Andersson, A. J., Ries, J. B., Aronson, R. B., Lamare, M. D., Koeve, W., Oschlies, A., Iglesias-Rodriguez, M. D., Thatje, S., Amsler, M., Vos, S. C., Jones, D. O. B., Ruhl, H. A., Gates, A. R. and McClintock, J. B. (2016) Benthic marine calcifiers coexist with CaCO3-undersaturated seawater worldwide Global Biogeochemical Cycles . DOI 10.1002/2015GB005260.

Blanco-Ameijeiras, S., Lebrato, M., Stoll, H. M., Iglesias-Rodriguez, D., Müller, M. N., Mendez-Vicente, A. and Oschlies, A. (2016) Phenotypic Variability in the Coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi PLoS ONE, 11 (6). e0157697. DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0157697.

Böning, C. W., Behrens, E., Biastoch, A., Getzlaff, K. and Bamber, J. L. (2016) Emerging impact of Greenland meltwater on deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean Nature Geoscience, 9 (7). pp. 523-527. DOI 10.1038/ngeo2740.

Patara, L., Böning, C. W. and Biastoch, A. (2016) Variability and trends in Southern Ocean eddy activity in 1/12° ocean model simulations Geophysical Research Letters, 43 . pp. 4517-4523. DOI 10.1002/2016GL069026.

Arndt, D., Braack, M. and Lube, G. (2016) Finite Elements for the Navier-Stokes Problem with Outflow Condition Numerical Mathematics and Advanced Applications ENUMATH, 112 . pp. 95-103. DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-39929-4_10.

Piwonski, J. and Slawig, T. (2016) The Marine Ecosystem Toolkit for Optimization and Simulation in 3-D - Part 1: Simulation Package v0.3.2 Geoscientific Model Development . pp. 3729-3750. DOI 10.5194/gmd-9-3729-2016 .

Piwonski, J. and Slawig, T. (2016) Metos3D: the Marine Ecosystem Toolkit for Optimization and Simulation in 3-D - Part 1: Simulation Package v0.3.2 Geoscientific Model Development, 9 (10). pp. 3729-3750. DOI 10.5194/gmd-9-3729-2016.

Tseng, Y. h., Lin, H., Chen, H. c., Thompson, K., Bentsen, M., Böning, C. W., Bozec, A., Cassou, C., Chassignet, E., Chow, C. H., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Farneti, R., Fogli, P. G., Fujii, Y., Griffies, S. M., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Masina, S., Navarra, A., Patara, L., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Sidorenko, D., Sui, C. H., Tsujino, H., Valcke, S., Voldoire, A., Wang, Q. and Yeager, S. G. (2016) North and equatorial Pacific Ocean circulation in the CORE-II hindcast simulations Ocean Modelling, 104 . pp. 143-170. DOI 10.1016/j.ocemod.2016.06.003.

Rühs, S., Getzlaff, K., Durgadoo, J. V., Biastoch, A. and Böning, C. W. (2015) On the suitability of North Brazil Current transport estimates for monitoring basin-scale AMOC changes Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (19). pp. 8072-8080. DOI 10.1002/2015GL065695.

Downes, S. M., Farneti, R., Uotila, P., Griffies, S. M., Marsland, S. J., Bailey, D., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Fogli, P. G., Gusev, A., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Long, M., Lu, J., Masina, S., Mishra, A., Navarra, A., George Nurser, A. J., Patara, L., Samuels, B. L., Sidorenko, D., Spence, P., Tsujino, H., Wang, Q. and Yeager, S. G. (2015) An assessment of Southern Ocean water masses and sea ice during 1988–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations Ocean Modelling, 94 . pp. 67-94. DOI 10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.022.

Farneti, R., Downes, S. M., Griffies, S. M., Marsland, S. J., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Bozec, A., Canuto, V. M., Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Diansky, N., Drange, H., Fogli, P. G., Gusev, A., Hallberg, R. W., Howard, A., Ilicak, M., Jung, T., Kelley, M., Large, W. G., Leboissetier, A., Long, M., Lu, J., Masina, S., Mishra, A., Navarra, A., George Nurser, A. J., Patara, L., Samuels, B. L., Sidorenko, D., Tsujino, H., Uotila, P., Wang, Q. and Yeager, S. G. (2015) An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations Ocean Modelling, 93 . pp. 84-120. DOI 10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.009.

Su, B., Pahlow, M., Wagner, H. and Oschlies, A. (2015) What prevents nitrogen depletion in the oxygen minimum zone of the eastern tropical South Pacific? Biogeosciences (BG), 12 . pp. 1113-1130. DOI 10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015.

El Jarbi, M. and Slawig, T. (2015) Extension of a Marine Ecosystem Model using Discrete Open Loop Optimal Control International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 6 (1). pp. 22-39. DOI 10.1504/IJMMNO.2015.068903.

Reimer, J., Schuerch, M. and Slawig, T. (2015) Optimization of model parameters and experimental designs with the Optimal Experimental Design Toolbox (v1.0) exemplified by sedimentation in salt marshes Geoscientific Model Development, 8 (3). pp. 791-804.

Slawig, T. (2015) Klimamodelle und Klimasimulationen . Springer Spektrum, Berlin Heidelberg, 250 pp. ISBN 978-3-662-47063-3

Scott, R., Biastoch, A., Roder, C., Stiebens, V. and Eizaguirre, C. (2014) Nano-tags for neonates and ocean-mediated swimming behaviours linked to rapid dispersal of hatchling sea turtles Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences, 281 (1796). p. 20141209. DOI 10.1098/rspb.2014.1209.

Prowe, A. E. F., Pahlow, M., Dutkiewicz, S. and Oschlies, A. (2014) How important is diversity for capturing environmental-change responses in ecosystem models? Biogeosciences (BG), 11 . pp. 3397-3407. DOI 10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014.

Patara, L. and Böning, C. W. (2014) Abyssal ocean warming around Antarctica strengthens the Atlantic overturning circulation Geophysical Research Letters, 41 (11). pp. 3972-3978. DOI 10.1002/2014GL059923.

Braack, M. and Mucha, P. B. (2014) DIRECTIONAL DO-NOTHING CONDITION FOR THE NAVIER-STOKES EQUATIONS Journal of Computational Mathematics, 32 (5). pp. 507-521.

Braack, M. and Taschenberger, N. (2014) A posteriori control of modelling and discretization errors for quasi periodic solutions Journal of Numerical Mathematics, 22 (2). pp. 87-108.

Braack, M., Schluenzen, K. H., Taschenberger, N. and Uphoff, M. (2014) Error estimation and adaptive chemical transport modeling Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 23 (4). pp. 341-348.

El Ouali, M., Fohlin, H. and Srivastav, A. (2014) A randomised approximation algorithm for the hitting set problem Theoretical Computer Science, 555 . pp. 23-34.

Hebbinghaus, N. and Srivastav, A. (2014) Discrepancy of (centered) arithmetic progressions in Z(p) European Journal of Combinatorics, 35 . pp. 324-334.

Slawig, T., Prieß, M. and Kratzenstein, C. (2014) Surrogate-Based and One-shot Optimization Methods for PDE-Constrained Problems with an Application in Climate Models In: Solving Computationally Expensive Engineering Problems . Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, 97 . Springer International Publishing, 97:1-97:24. ISBN 978-3-319-08984-3 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-08985-0_1.

Arevalo-Martinez, D. L., Beyer, M., Krumbholz, M., Piller, I., Kock, A., Steinhoff, T., Körtzinger, A. and Bange, H. W. (2013) A new method for continuous measurements of oceanic and atmospheric N2O, CO and CO2: performance of off-axis integrated cavity output spectroscopy (OA-ICOS) coupled to non-dispersive infrared detection (NDIR) Ocean Science, 9 (6). pp. 1071-1087. DOI 10.5194/os-9-1071-2013.

Prieß, M., Piwonski, J., Koziel, S., Oschlies, A. and Slawig, T. (2013) Accelerated Parameter Identification in a 3D Marine Biogeochemical Model Using Surrogate-Based Optimization Ocean Modelling, 68 . pp. 22-36. DOI 10.1016/j.ocemod.2013.04.003.

Braack, M. and Taschenberger, N. (2013) HIERARCHICAL A POSTERIORI RESIDUAL BASED ERROR ESTIMATORS FOR BILINEAR FINITE ELEMENTS International Journal of Numerical Analysis and Modeling, 10 (2). pp. 466-480.

Braack, M., Lang, J. and Taschenberger, N. (2013) Stabilized finite elements for transient flow problems on varying spatial meshes Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 253 . pp. 106-116.

Cocco, V., Joos, F., Steinacher, M., Frölicher, T. L., Bopp, L., Dunne, J., Gehlen, M., Heinze, C., Orr, J., Oschlies, A., Schneider, B., Segschneider, J. and Tjiputra, J. (2013) Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections Biogeosciences (BG), 10 (3). pp. 1849-1868. DOI 10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013.

El Jarbi, M., Rückelt, J., Slawig, T. and Oschlies, A. (2013) Reducing the model-data misfit in a marine ecosystem model using periodic parameters and linear quadratic optimal control Biogeosciences (BG), 10 (2). pp. 1169-1182. DOI 10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013.

Fischer, M., Wahl, M. and Friedrichs, G. (2013) Field Sensor for In-Situ Detection Of Marine Bacterial Biofilms : Novel Sensor Concept Enables Time-Resolved Detection of Bacteria from initial attachement to mature cell clusters Sea Technology, 54 (2). pp. 49-52.

Heinle, A. and Slawig, T. (2013) Impact of parameter choice on the dynamics of NPZD type ecosystem models Ecological Modelling, 267 . pp. 93-101.

Heinle, A. and Slawig, T. (2013) Internal dynamics of NPZD type ecosystem models Ecological Modelling, 254 . pp. 33-42.

Heinle, A. and Slawig, T. (2013) Theoretical analysis and optimization of nonlinear ODE systems for marine ecosystem models System Modelling and Optimization . pp. 501-510. DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-36062-6_50.

Kratzenstein, C. and Slawig, T. (2013) Simultaneous Model Spin-up and Parameter Identification with the One-Shot Method in a Climate Model Example International Journal of Optimization and Control: Theory and Applications . DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.11121/ijocta.01.2013.00144.

Prieß, M., Koziel, S. and Slawig, T. (2013) Marine Ecosystem Model Calibration through Enhanced Surrogate-Based Optimization In: Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications , ed. by Pina, N., Kacprzyk, J. and Filipe, J.. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 197 (2). Springer, Berlin, Germany, pp. 193-208. ISBN 978-3-642-34335-3 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-34336-0_13.

Prieß, M., Koziel, S. and Slawig, T. (2013) Marine Ecosystem Model Calibration with Real Data Using Enhanced Surrogate-Based Optimization Journal of Computational Science, 4 (5). pp. 423-437. DOI 10.1016/j.jocs.2013.04.001.

Siewertsen, E., Piwonski, J. and Slawig, T. (2013) Porting marine ecosystem model spin-up using transport matrices to GPUs Geoscientific Model Development, 6 (1). pp. 17-28.

Siewertsen, E., Piwonski, J. and Slawig, T. (2012) Simulation von biogeochemischen Prozessen in 3-D auf GPUs (Bachelor thesis), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, SH, Germany, 33 pp.

Becker, M., Andersen, N., Fiedler, B., Fietzek, P., Körtzinger, A., Steinhoff, T. and Friedrichs, G. (2012) Using cavity ringdown spectroscopy for continuous monitoring of delta C-13(CO2) and fCO(2) in the surface ocean Limnology and Oceanography-Methods, 10 . pp. 752-766.

Becker, M., Andersen, N., Fiedler, B., Fietzek, P., Körtzinger, A., Steinhoff, T. and Friedrichs, G. (2012) Using cavity ringdown spectroscopy for continuous monitoring of δ13C(CO2) and ƒCO2 in the surface ocean Limnology and Oceanography: Methods, 10 . pp. 752-766. DOI 10.4319/lom.2012.10.752.

Braack, M. and Tews, B. (2012) LINEAR-QUADRATIC OPTIMAL CONTROL FOR THE OSEEN EQUATIONS WITH STABILIZED FINITE ELEMENTS Esaim-Control Optimisation and Calculus of Variations, 18 (4). pp. 987-1004.

Braack, M., Lube, G. and Röhe, L. (2012) Divergence Preserving Interpolation on Anisotropic Quadrilateral Meshes Computational Methods in Applied Mathematics, 12 (2). 123–138.

Fischer, M., Wahl, M. and Friedrichs, G. (2012) Design and field application of a UV-LED based optical fiber biofilm sensor Biosensors and Bioelectronics, 33 (1). pp. 172-178. DOI 10.1016/j.bios.2011.12.048.

Kimmritz, M. and Braack, M. (2012) Equal-order finite elements for the hydrostatic Stokes problem Computational Methods in Applied Mathematics, 12 (3). 306–329.

Prieß, M. and Slawig, T. (2012) Aggressive space mapping for optimisation of a marine ecosystem model International Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Optimisation, 3 (1/2). p. 98. DOI 10.1504/IJMMNO.2012.044732.

Prieß, M., Piwonski, J., Koziel, S. and Slawig, T. (2012) Parameter identification in climate models using surrogate-based optimization Journal of Computational Methods in Science and Engineering, 12 (1-2). pp. 47-62. DOI 10.3233/JCM-2012-0403.

Beal, L. M., De Ruijter, W. P. M., Biastoch, A., Zahn, R., Cronin, M., Hermes, J., Lutjeharms, J., Quartly, G., Tozuka, T., Baker-Yeboah, S., Bornman, T., Cipollini, P., Dijkstra, H., Hall, I., Park, W., Peeters, F., Penven, P., Ridderinkhof, H. and Zinke, J. and SCOR/WCRP/IAPSOWorking Group 136 (2011) On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate Nature, 472 (7344). pp. 429-436. DOI 10.1038/nature09983.

Prieß, M., Koziel, S. and Slawig, T. (2011) Improved Surrogate-Based Optimization of Climate Model Parameters Using Response Correction [Paper] In: 1. International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2011), 29.-31.07.2011, Noordwijkerhout, The Netherlands .

Prieß, M., Koziel, S. and Slawig, T. (2011) Surrogate-based optimization of climate model parameters using response correction Journal of Computational Science, 2 (4). pp. 335-344. DOI 10.1016/j.jocs.2011.08.004.

Roy, T., Bopp, L., Gehlen, M., Schneider, B., Cadule, P., Frolicher, T. L., Segschneider, J., Tjiputra, J., Heinze, C. and Joos, F. (2011) Regional Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO(2) on Future Ocean Carbon Uptake: A Multimodel Linear Feedback Analysis Journal of Climate, 24 (9). pp. 2300-2318. DOI 10.1175/2010jcli3787.1.

Ruckelt, J., Sauerland, V., Slawig, T., Srivastav, A., Ward, B. and Patvardhan, C. (2010) Parameter optimization and uncertainty analysis in a model of oceanic CO2 uptake using a hybrid algorithm and algorithmic differentiation Nonlinear Analysis-Real World Applications, 11 (5). pp. 3993-4009.